NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORST ORE
Points 67.9 75.6
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 21.5
Points From Free Throws 13.8 15.6
Shooting ORST ORE
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 57.3
Field Goal % 44.8% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.1% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 13.8 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 21.5
Free Throw % 73.5% 72.9%
Ball Control ORST ORE
Rebounds 31.5 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.9
Turnovers 11.7 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.1
Steals 4.7 6.4
Fouls 16.9 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORST ORE
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.0 70.1
% of Possessions with ORST ORE
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 26.9%
Player Fouled 23.1% 24.4%
Turnover 16.8% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORST ORE
Shot Blocked 5.5% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 29.1%