NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORST CAL
Points 72.2 74.1
Total Points   146.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 25.6
Points From Free Throws 15.1 15.0
Shooting ORST CAL
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 60.3
Field Goal % 44.9% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.7 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 15.1 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 20.5
Free Throw % 73.5% 73.2%
Ball Control ORST CAL
Rebounds 35.0 37.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 10.7
Turnovers 10.2 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.7 2.3
Steals 4.8 5.5
Fouls 15.6 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORST CAL
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 72.6
% of Possessions with ORST CAL
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 30.6%
Player Fouled 23.2% 21.8%
Turnover 14.3% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORST CAL
Shot Blocked 3.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 28.3%