NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORST ARIZ
Points 66.8 84.6
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 44.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 21.9
Points From Free Throws 12.0 18.7
Shooting ORST ARIZ
Field Goals Made 24.3 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 59.7
Field Goal % 42.2% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 12.0 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 26.4
Free Throw % 73.5% 71.0%
Ball Control ORST ARIZ
Rebounds 29.1 41.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 12.4
Turnovers 12.8 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.1
Steals 5.6 7.5
Fouls 17.9 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORST ARIZ
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 75.8
% of Possessions with ORST ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 23.2%
Player Fouled 21.8% 24.4%
Turnover 17.4% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORST ARIZ
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 35.9%