NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST SCU
Points 65.6 76.7
Total Points   142.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.0 13.6
Shooting IDST SCU
Field Goals Made 22.5 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 55.3
Field Goal % 40.1% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 27.3% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 15.0 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 19.5
Free Throw % 70.0% 69.6%
Ball Control IDST SCU
Rebounds 28.5 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 19.6 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.7
Turnovers 8.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.3
Steals 6.3 4.4
Fouls 15.7 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST SCU
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 68.0
% of Possessions with IDST SCU
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.7% 20.2%
Player Fouled 25.3% 22.7%
Turnover 12.6% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST SCU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 35.4%