NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST AFA
Points 67.4 68.4
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 21.9
Points From Free Throws 15.0 10.8
Shooting IDST AFA
Field Goals Made 23.2 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 50.4 49.4
Field Goal % 46.0% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 15.0 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 15.8
Free Throw % 70.0% 68.7%
Ball Control IDST AFA
Rebounds 30.0 27.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 6.6
Turnovers 9.9 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.9
Steals 5.8 6.1
Fouls 14.7 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST AFA
Total Possessions 63.9
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 58.9
% of Possessions with IDST AFA
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 43.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 25.1%
Player Fouled 25.8% 23.1%
Turnover 15.5% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST AFA
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 24.4%