NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST CAL
Points 67.7 77.5
Total Points   145.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 41.9
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 21.1
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.5
Shooting IDST CAL
Field Goals Made 23.9 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 58.0
Field Goal % 41.0% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 19.8
Free Throw % 70.0% 73.2%
Ball Control IDST CAL
Rebounds 32.3 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 9.8
Turnovers 9.4 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.5
Steals 5.2 5.8
Fouls 14.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST CAL
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 70.1
% of Possessions with IDST CAL
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 22.6%
Player Fouled 22.2% 21.0%
Turnover 13.4% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST CAL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 29.7%