NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDST NAU
Points 72.9 67.1
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 14.6 15.6
Points From Free Throws 15.8 12.3
Shooting IDST NAU
Field Goals Made 26.1 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 53.5
Field Goal % 46.6% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.8 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 17.8
Free Throw % 70.0% 69.2%
Ball Control IDST NAU
Rebounds 34.6 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 7.6
Turnovers 9.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.4
Steals 7.3 4.8
Fouls 15.0 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDST NAU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 64.3
% of Possessions with IDST NAU
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 19.8%
Player Fouled 25.1% 21.8%
Turnover 13.4% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDST NAU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.2% 24.0%