NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DART BRY
Points 61.3 75.8
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 27.4 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 29.0
Points From Free Throws 11.9 9.7
Shooting DART BRY
Field Goals Made 21.0 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 62.1
Field Goal % 35.9% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.9 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 11.9 9.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 14.3
Free Throw % 66.3% 67.6%
Ball Control DART BRY
Rebounds 38.1 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 30.4 32.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 5.9
Turnovers 12.2 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 6.0
Steals 4.7 6.9
Fouls 13.3 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Bryant

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DART BRY
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 70.3
% of Possessions with DART BRY
2 Point Attempt 42.0% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 33.2%
Player Fouled 19.7% 18.1%
Turnover 16.7% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DART BRY
Shot Blocked 9.9% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 16.2%