NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DART UVM
Points 56.2 70.5
Total Points   126.7
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 28.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 31.9
Points From Free Throws 8.9 9.7
Shooting DART UVM
Field Goals Made 20.3 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 56.9
Field Goal % 38.1% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.6 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 28.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.0% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 28.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 8.9 9.7
Free Throws Attempted 13.5 13.4
Free Throw % 66.3% 71.9%
Ball Control DART UVM
Rebounds 33.9 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.9 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 5.6
Turnovers 10.4 6.8
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 3.4 6.4
Fouls 12.5 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Dartmouth

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DART UVM
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 61.0 64.2
% of Possessions with DART UVM
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 39.0%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.1%
Turnover 15.9% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 9.8% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DART UVM
Shot Blocked 7.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 16.9% 16.8%