NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COR MIA
Points 76.7 80.0
Total Points   156.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 30.2
Points From Free Throws 9.4 11.8
Shooting COR MIA
Field Goals Made 27.2 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.8 62.4
Field Goal % 43.4% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 24.3 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 59.5% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 10.1
3 Pointers Attempted 38.5 27.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 9.4 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 12.7 16.5
Free Throw % 74.2% 71.6%
Ball Control COR MIA
Rebounds 34.4 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 11.1
Turnovers 11.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.9
Steals 7.6 6.9
Fouls 14.6 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COR MIA
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 73.1
% of Possessions with COR MIA
2 Point Attempt 29.2% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 46.1% 32.5%
Player Fouled 15.2% 20.0%
Turnover 15.7% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken COR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 30.9%