NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SLU TULN
Points 82.6 84.1
Total Points   166.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 30.1 24.1
Points From Free Throws 17.3 20.4
Shooting SLU TULN
Field Goals Made 27.6 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 55.9
Field Goal % 46.1% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.2% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 17.3 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 28.4
Free Throw % 75.1% 71.6%
Ball Control SLU TULN
Rebounds 36.4 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 5.8
Turnovers 10.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.0
Steals 5.2 6.8
Fouls 18.5 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SLU TULN
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 72.3
% of Possessions with SLU TULN
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 26.1%
Player Fouled 21.2% 24.8%
Turnover 14.4% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SLU TULN
Shot Blocked 7.3% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 17.7%