NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SLU MASS
Points 74.2 82.1
Total Points   156.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 41.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 23.6
Points From Free Throws 18.1 16.8
Shooting SLU MASS
Field Goals Made 24.4 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 60.0
Field Goal % 45.0% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 57.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 18.1 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 24.7
Free Throw % 75.1% 68.2%
Ball Control SLU MASS
Rebounds 32.1 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 12.7
Turnovers 11.3 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.4
Steals 5.2 6.7
Fouls 16.5 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SLU MASS
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 75.4
% of Possessions with SLU MASS
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 28.0%
Player Fouled 24.1% 23.2%
Turnover 15.9% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SLU MASS
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 35.4%