NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NDSU MTST
Points 72.8 79.9
Total Points   152.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.9 25.7
Points From Free Throws 14.8 11.2
Shooting NDSU MTST
Field Goals Made 25.8 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.0 57.2
Field Goal % 48.8% 52.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 58.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 41.7%
Free Throws Made 14.8 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 15.5
Free Throw % 74.1% 72.4%
Ball Control NDSU MTST
Rebounds 31.4 28.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 5.3
Turnovers 12.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 1.1 3.0
Steals 3.5 6.9
Fouls 14.2 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NDSU MTST
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 66.7
% of Possessions with NDSU MTST
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 27.0%
Player Fouled 23.8% 20.2%
Turnover 17.3% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 5.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NDSU MTST
Shot Blocked 5.2% 2.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 17.8%