NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOW NCCU
Points 77.3 75.6
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 20.3
Points From Free Throws 19.6 18.5
Shooting HOW NCCU
Field Goals Made 24.9 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 53.8
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 19.6 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 26.8
Free Throw % 76.0% 69.0%
Ball Control HOW NCCU
Rebounds 36.0 29.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 9.0
Turnovers 11.8 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.3
Steals 4.1 6.0
Fouls 17.8 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Howard

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOW NCCU
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 70.0
% of Possessions with HOW NCCU
2 Point Attempt 37.7% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 23.2%
Player Fouled 24.6% 25.2%
Turnover 16.7% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOW NCCU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 35.4% 26.8%