NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LIP MIA
Points 77.1 84.3
Total Points   161.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 44.8
Points From 3-Pointers 34.8 30.9
Points From Free Throws 8.3 8.6
Shooting LIP MIA
Field Goals Made 28.6 32.7
Field Goals Attempted 62.7 64.7
Field Goal % 45.6% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 22.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 57.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 31.1 26.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 8.3 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 10.7 12.1
Free Throw % 77.5% 71.6%
Ball Control LIP MIA
Rebounds 30.5 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 10.1
Turnovers 10.1 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.7
Steals 5.9 5.7
Fouls 10.7 10.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LIP MIA
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 72.3
% of Possessions with LIP MIA
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 38.7% 31.2%
Player Fouled 14.0% 14.9%
Turnover 14.0% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken LIP MIA
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 29.9%