NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NDSU SDST
Points 71.4 80.6
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 28.8 23.6
Points From Free Throws 10.6 11.7
Shooting NDSU SDST
Field Goals Made 25.6 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 56.8
Field Goal % 45.6% 53.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.2 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 60.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 10.6 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 16.0
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.3%
Ball Control NDSU SDST
Rebounds 29.4 31.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 6.0
Turnovers 10.9 8.3
Blocked Shots 1.3 3.4
Steals 3.9 5.3
Fouls 14.3 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NDSU SDST
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.5 66.6
% of Possessions with NDSU SDST
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 26.0%
Player Fouled 18.6% 20.7%
Turnover 15.8% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NDSU SDST
Shot Blocked 6.0% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 20.7%