NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOW MSM
Points 72.5 77.7
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 43.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 21.9
Points From Free Throws 16.5 12.6
Shooting HOW MSM
Field Goals Made 24.1 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 57.6
Field Goal % 42.8% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 16.5 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 17.5
Free Throw % 76.0% 71.9%
Ball Control HOW MSM
Rebounds 32.5 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.8
Turnovers 12.4 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.7
Steals 6.8 6.4
Fouls 14.5 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOW MSM
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 68.8
% of Possessions with HOW MSM
2 Point Attempt 43.0% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 24.4%
Player Fouled 20.8% 20.2%
Turnover 17.2% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOW MSM
Shot Blocked 8.3% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 27.8%