NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUCK PSU
Points 59.6 74.5
Total Points   134.1
Points From 2-Pointers 29.4 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 23.6
Points From Free Throws 11.3 17.4
Shooting BUCK PSU
Field Goals Made 21.0 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 55.5
Field Goal % 39.9% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.7 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 11.3 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 23.2
Free Throw % 70.3% 74.9%
Ball Control BUCK PSU
Rebounds 32.8 35.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 9.7
Turnovers 14.3 8.6
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.2
Steals 5.2 7.6
Fouls 17.0 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUCK PSU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 69.6
% of Possessions with BUCK PSU
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 30.2%
Player Fouled 21.3% 24.8%
Turnover 20.9% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUCK PSU
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 28.3%