NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BUCK SFPA
Points 70.1 60.9
Total Points   131.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 19.6
Points From Free Throws 12.7 11.4
Shooting BUCK SFPA
Field Goals Made 24.5 21.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 55.0
Field Goal % 46.0% 39.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 29.6 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 43.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 12.7 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 19.0
Free Throw % 70.3% 60.1%
Ball Control BUCK SFPA
Rebounds 35.2 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 11.5
Turnovers 10.8 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.0
Steals 5.8 5.2
Fouls 14.6 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BUCK SFPA
Total Possessions 65.6
Effective Scoring Chances 64.1 66.7
% of Possessions with BUCK SFPA
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 26.6%
Player Fouled 24.0% 22.3%
Turnover 16.4% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken BUCK SFPA
Shot Blocked 7.5% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 30.7%