NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NDSU KSU
Points 65.1 81.6
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 46.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 20.2
Points From Free Throws 14.1 15.5
Shooting NDSU KSU
Field Goals Made 22.2 29.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 56.0
Field Goal % 39.1% 53.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.0% 61.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 14.1 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 21.5
Free Throw % 74.1% 71.9%
Ball Control NDSU KSU
Rebounds 29.3 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.9
Turnovers 11.0 9.8
Blocked Shots 1.3 5.1
Steals 4.2 5.2
Fouls 15.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NDSU KSU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 69.6
% of Possessions with NDSU KSU
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 23.1%
Player Fouled 22.0% 22.0%
Turnover 15.6% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NDSU KSU
Shot Blocked 9.2% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 29.6%