NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ME UVM
Points 58.9 67.5
Total Points   126.4
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 34.4
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 20.9
Points From Free Throws 10.2 12.2
Shooting ME UVM
Field Goals Made 21.8 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 54.8
Field Goal % 38.7% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 10.2 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 17.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.9%
Ball Control ME UVM
Rebounds 32.3 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 7.1
Turnovers 9.3 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.8
Steals 6.2 5.5
Fouls 14.4 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Maine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ME UVM
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 64.7
% of Possessions with ME UVM
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 28.3%
Player Fouled 18.4% 21.4%
Turnover 13.9% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ME UVM
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 17.5% 21.5%