NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ME UMBC
Points 71.7 72.7
Total Points   144.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 43.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 19.4
Points From Free Throws 11.3 9.3
Shooting ME UMBC
Field Goals Made 27.1 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 64.1 61.2
Field Goal % 42.3% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 52.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.3 9.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 13.7
Free Throw % 71.4% 67.9%
Ball Control ME UMBC
Rebounds 35.6 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 8.1
Turnovers 9.7 12.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.3
Steals 8.9 4.3
Fouls 13.3 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Maine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ME UMBC
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 69.8
% of Possessions with ME UMBC
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 23.0%
Player Fouled 16.8% 17.9%
Turnover 13.0% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 12.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ME UMBC
Shot Blocked 5.4% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 23.0%