NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ME UMASS
Points 67.2 73.2
Total Points   140.4
Points From 2-Pointers 40.9 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 13.9
Points From Free Throws 11.6 17.5
Shooting ME UMASS
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 55.7
Field Goal % 41.1% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 43.5 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 14.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.0% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 11.6 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 23.6
Free Throw % 71.4% 74.3%
Ball Control ME UMASS
Rebounds 30.9 41.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.4
Turnovers 10.1 13.3
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.0
Steals 9.1 6.1
Fouls 16.6 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Maine

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ME UMASS
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 70.2
% of Possessions with ME UMASS
2 Point Attempt 52.6% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 17.3%
Player Fouled 18.1% 22.7%
Turnover 13.8% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 12.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken ME UMASS
Shot Blocked 7.3% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 31.1%