NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ME STON
Points 64.0 69.6
Total Points   133.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 38.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 17.6
Points From Free Throws 11.3 13.4
Shooting ME STON
Field Goals Made 22.9 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 57.2
Field Goal % 39.4% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 11.3 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 18.4
Free Throw % 71.4% 72.8%
Ball Control ME STON
Rebounds 33.0 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 30.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.1
Turnovers 9.6 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.8
Steals 7.1 5.6
Fouls 14.1 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Stony Brook

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ME STON
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 68.7
% of Possessions with ME STON
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 22.0%
Player Fouled 18.8% 20.1%
Turnover 13.8% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ME STON
Shot Blocked 5.0% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.4% 26.2%