NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARMY AFA
Points 58.1 66.8
Total Points   124.9
Points From 2-Pointers 26.8 27.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 28.4
Points From Free Throws 9.3 10.7
Shooting ARMY AFA
Field Goals Made 20.7 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 49.8 50.1
Field Goal % 41.6% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 28.5 25.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.3 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 9.3 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 15.4 15.6
Free Throw % 60.0% 68.7%
Ball Control ARMY AFA
Rebounds 31.1 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 6.8
Turnovers 11.5 9.7
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.7
Steals 4.7 6.9
Fouls 15.1 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Air Force

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARMY AFA
Total Possessions 62.2
Effective Scoring Chances 59.4 59.3
% of Possessions with ARMY AFA
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 35.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 35.2%
Player Fouled 21.7% 24.2%
Turnover 18.4% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARMY AFA
Shot Blocked 7.6% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 23.3%