NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARMY LAF
Points 56.4 60.4
Total Points   116.8
Points From 2-Pointers 25.3 29.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 21.8
Points From Free Throws 8.5 9.3
Shooting ARMY LAF
Field Goals Made 20.2 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 54.9
Field Goal % 37.4% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 12.6 14.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.2 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 8.5 9.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 13.7
Free Throw % 60.0% 68.2%
Ball Control ARMY LAF
Rebounds 36.5 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.6
Turnovers 11.1 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.1
Steals 4.9 6.6
Fouls 13.2 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Lafayette

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARMY LAF
Total Possessions 64.5
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 62.7
% of Possessions with ARMY LAF
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 30.6%
Player Fouled 20.3% 20.4%
Turnover 17.2% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARMY LAF
Shot Blocked 7.7% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 21.8%