NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARMY NAVY
Points 60.9 62.5
Total Points   123.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 17.1
Points From Free Throws 9.1 14.5
Shooting ARMY NAVY
Field Goals Made 22.3 21.1
Field Goals Attempted 50.8 55.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 38.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 28.2 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.8% 42.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 9.1 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.2 20.4
Free Throw % 60.0% 71.0%
Ball Control ARMY NAVY
Rebounds 34.5 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 11.1
Turnovers 12.2 8.4
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.1
Steals 3.8 6.0
Fouls 16.0 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Army

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARMY NAVY
Total Possessions 64.3
Effective Scoring Chances 60.8 67.0
% of Possessions with ARMY NAVY
2 Point Attempt 38.1% 47.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 23.8%
Player Fouled 22.7% 24.9%
Turnover 19.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARMY NAVY
Shot Blocked 3.9% 10.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 30.0%