NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UAB MTU
Points 78.3 65.6
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 44.8 29.5
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 22.6
Points From Free Throws 18.2 13.5
Shooting UAB MTU
Field Goals Made 27.5 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 58.3
Field Goal % 45.9% 38.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.4 14.8
2 Pointers Attempted 44.9 34.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 43.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 15.1 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 18.2 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 18.9
Free Throw % 74.3% 71.4%
Ball Control UAB MTU
Rebounds 40.2 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 10.4
Turnovers 8.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 5.1 4.1
Steals 5.7 4.4
Fouls 14.1 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: UAB

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UAB MTU
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.5 69.6
% of Possessions with UAB MTU
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.8% 28.7%
Player Fouled 21.8% 19.8%
Turnover 12.2% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UAB MTU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.7% 26.9%