NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UAB UNM
Points 73.8 81.4
Total Points   155.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 47.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 19.1
Points From Free Throws 18.0 14.6
Shooting UAB UNM
Field Goals Made 25.2 30.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.5 66.4
Field Goal % 42.4% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 47.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.1% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 18.0 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 20.3
Free Throw % 74.3% 72.3%
Ball Control UAB UNM
Rebounds 37.0 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 12.9
Turnovers 11.5 8.6
Blocked Shots 5.0 6.4
Steals 5.4 7.7
Fouls 14.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: UAB

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UAB UNM
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 78.2
% of Possessions with UAB UNM
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 53.2%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 21.6%
Player Fouled 21.5% 19.3%
Turnover 15.5% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UAB UNM
Shot Blocked 9.9% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 33.1%