NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UAB UTSA
Points 85.7 75.2
Total Points   160.9
Points From 2-Pointers 44.3 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 28.0
Points From Free Throws 19.9 15.1
Shooting UAB UTSA
Field Goals Made 29.3 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 64.5
Field Goal % 47.4% 39.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 44.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 28.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 19.9 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.7 21.3
Free Throw % 74.3% 71.1%
Ball Control UAB UTSA
Rebounds 40.7 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 12.3
Turnovers 8.0 9.6
Blocked Shots 5.7 4.8
Steals 5.3 4.5
Fouls 14.3 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UAB UTSA
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 77.2 76.7
% of Possessions with UAB UTSA
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 31.6%
Player Fouled 22.8% 19.4%
Turnover 10.7% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UAB UTSA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 9.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 29.2%