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Duke at Louisville
Sat Jan 23, 2021
4:00pm ET
Louisville, KY
Duke at Louisville: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Louisville by 2.5, Total Points: 142
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | DUKE | adv | LOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 21-14-1 | 13-18-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 11-10-1 | 9-11-1 | |
| Streak | L1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 1-4-0 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4-0 | 3-7-0 | |
| Home | 11-7-0 | 5-12-1 | |
| Away | 10-7-1 | 8-6-0 |
Duke Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Dartmouth | -28.0 | W by 38 | +10.0 |
| 11/10 | Home | Arizona | -5.0 | L by 5 | -10.0 |
| 11/14 | Neutral | Michigan St | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 11/17 | Home | Bucknell | -34.5 | W by 30 | -4.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | La Salle | -25.5 | W by 29 | +3.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | S Indiana | -36.5 | W by 18 | -18.5 |
| 11/29 | Away | Arkansas | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 12/02 | Away | GA Tech | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Charlotte | -16.5 | W by 24 | +7.5 |
| 12/12 | Home | Hofstra | -15.5 | W by 21 | +5.5 |
| 12/20 | Neutral | Baylor | -2.0 | W by 8 | +6.0 |
| 12/30 | Home | Queens | -28.0 | W by 37 | +9.0 |
| 01/02 | Home | Syracuse | -14.5 | W by 20 | +5.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Notre Dame | -14.5 | W by 8 | -6.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Pittsburgh | -5.0 | W by 22 | +17.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | GA Tech | -17.5 | W by 5 | -12.5 |
| 01/20 | Home | Pittsburgh | -12.5 | L by 4 | -16.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | Louisville | -14.0 | W by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Clemson | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 01/29 | Away | VA Tech | -3.5 | W by 10 | +6.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | N Carolina | +4.5 | L by 9 | -4.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Notre Dame | -17.0 | W by 18 | +1.0 |
| 02/10 | Home | Boston Col | -12.5 | W by 15 | +2.5 |
| 02/12 | Home | Wake Forest | -7.0 | W by 8 | +1.0 |
| 02/17 | Away | Florida St | -6.0 | W by 9 | +3.0 |
| 02/21 | Away | Miami | -7.0 | W by 29 | +22.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Wake Forest | +3.0 | L by 4 | -1.0 |
| 02/28 | Home | Louisville | -20.5 | W by 25 | +4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Virginia | -10.0 | W by 25 | +15.0 |
| 03/04 | Away | NC State | -6.5 | W by 15 | +8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | N Carolina | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | NC State | -11.0 | L by 5 | -16.0 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Vermont | -12.5 | W by 17 | +4.5 |
| 03/24 | Neutral | James Mad | -6.0 | W by 38 | +32.0 |
| 03/29 | Neutral | Houston | +4.5 | W by 3 | +7.5 |
| 03/31 | Neutral | NC State | -7.0 | L by 12 | -19.0 |
Louisville Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Maryland BC | -7.5 | W by 1 | -6.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Chattanooga | -4.0 | L by 10 | -14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Coppin St | -17.5 | W by 20 | +2.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Texas | +17.5 | L by 1 | +16.5 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Indiana | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | N Mex State | -8.5 | W by 6 | -2.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Bellarmine | -5.5 | W by 5 | -0.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | VA Tech | +14.0 | L by 7 | +7.0 |
| 12/09 | Away | DePaul | +2.0 | L by 7 | -5.0 |
| 12/13 | Home | Arkansas St | -3.5 | L by 12 | -15.5 |
| 12/17 | Home | Pepperdine | -1.0 | W by 22 | +21.0 |
| 12/21 | Home | Kentucky | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | Virginia | +15.5 | L by 24 | -8.5 |
| 01/06 | Home | Pittsburgh | +8.5 | L by 13 | -4.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Miami | +16.5 | W by 9 | +25.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | NC State | +7.5 | L by 6 | +1.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | N Carolina | +21.0 | L by 16 | +5.0 |
| 01/20 | Away | Wake Forest | +16.0 | L by 25 | -9.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Duke | +14.0 | L by 14 | 0.0 |
| 01/27 | Home | Virginia | +9.0 | L by 17 | -8.0 |
| 01/30 | Away | Clemson | +16.0 | L by 6 | +10.0 |
| 02/03 | Home | Florida St | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Syracuse | +8.5 | L by 2 | +6.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | GA Tech | -1.0 | W by 12 | +11.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Boston Col | +9.5 | L by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Pittsburgh | +12.5 | L by 27 | -14.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Notre Dame | -3.0 | L by 22 | -25.0 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +20.5 | L by 25 | -4.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Syracuse | +5.0 | L by 6 | -1.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | VA Tech | +7.5 | L by 16 | -8.5 |
| 03/09 | Home | Boston Col | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| LOU -2.5 | Open | -1.5 | High | -3.0 |
| Last | -3.0 | Low | -1.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NCAA Basketball season there have been 2986 games where the closing line favored the home team by 1.5 to 3.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Louisville won the game 1742 times (58.3%).
- The team like Duke won the game 1244 times (41.7%).
- The team like Louisville did better against the spread, going 1503-1442-41 (51.0% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball season there have been 184 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 1 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Duke did better against the spread, going 93-91 (50.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -2.0 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Open | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 |
| History | |||
| 01/23 03:59 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 03:20 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 02:55 PM | -- | -- | -2.5 |
| 01/23 02:38 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 01:50 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 01:02 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 12:20 PM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 11:44 AM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 01/23 11:35 AM | -- | -- | -2.5 |
| 01/23 11:17 AM | -2.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 10:02 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 09:32 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 09:15 AM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 01/23 08:25 AM | -- | -- | -3.0 |
| 01/23 07:44 AM | -- | -3.0 | -- |
| 01/23 06:47 AM | -3.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 03:11 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 12:47 AM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/22 11:14 PM | -- | -2.5 | -- |
| 01/22 11:05 PM | -- | -- | -2.5 |
| 01/22 10:20 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/22 10:05 PM | -- | -- | -2.0 |
| 01/22 09:18 PM | -- | -2.0 | -- |
| 01/22 08:34 PM | -- | -2.0 | -- |
| 01/22 07:44 PM | -- | -2.0 | -- |
| 01/22 07:44 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/22 06:44 PM | -- | -2.0 | -- |
| 01/22 05:54 PM | -- | -2.0 | -- |
| 01/22 05:41 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/22 05:20 PM | -2.0 | -- | -- |
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