NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE LOU
Points 86.0 66.9
Total Points   152.9
Points From 2-Pointers 40.9 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 13.9
Points From Free Throws 16.9 13.9
Shooting DUKE LOU
Field Goals Made 29.9 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 55.3
Field Goal % 53.3% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 41.8% 29.1%
Free Throws Made 16.9 13.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 18.8
Free Throw % 71.5% 74.2%
Ball Control DUKE LOU
Rebounds 34.5 29.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 21.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 8.0
Turnovers 9.1 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.3
Steals 7.6 4.5
Fouls 15.9 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE LOU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 66.5
% of Possessions with DUKE LOU
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 19.9%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.6%
Turnover 12.9% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE LOU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 23.9%