NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE MIA
Points 81.8 69.4
Total Points   151.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 33.8 22.2
Points From Free Throws 11.5 9.1
Shooting DUKE MIA
Field Goals Made 29.5 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 59.6
Field Goal % 47.1% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 29.3 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 11.5 9.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 12.7
Free Throw % 71.6% 71.6%
Ball Control DUKE MIA
Rebounds 37.8 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.4
Turnovers 8.6 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.7
Steals 6.9 5.2
Fouls 12.6 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE MIA
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 67.2
% of Possessions with DUKE MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 35.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 15.9% 18.1%
Turnover 12.4% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE MIA
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 24.2%