NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU CONN
Points 54.5 84.7
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 27.6 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 14.3 26.9
Points From Free Throws 12.6 14.8
Shooting CCSU CONN
Field Goals Made 18.6 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 58.6
Field Goal % 33.2% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 35.7% 60.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 12.6 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 19.7
Free Throw % 71.4% 74.9%
Ball Control CCSU CONN
Rebounds 26.9 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 19.4 31.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.5
Turnovers 9.5 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.8
Steals 5.2 5.8
Fouls 13.5 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU CONN
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 70.7
% of Possessions with CCSU CONN
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 28.5%
Player Fouled 19.6% 20.0%
Turnover 14.1% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU CONN
Shot Blocked 10.0% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 37.2%