NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU CONN
Points 54.7 84.4
Total Points   139.1
Points From 2-Pointers 27.4 42.8
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 26.8
Points From Free Throws 12.9 14.9
Shooting CCSU CONN
Field Goals Made 18.5 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 58.3
Field Goal % 33.1% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 35.4% 60.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 12.9 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 19.8
Free Throw % 71.4% 74.9%
Ball Control CCSU CONN
Rebounds 27.2 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 19.5 31.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.2
Turnovers 9.5 8.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.9
Steals 5.2 5.7
Fouls 13.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU CONN
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 70.5
% of Possessions with CCSU CONN
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 28.6%
Player Fouled 19.7% 20.1%
Turnover 14.0% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU CONN
Shot Blocked 10.3% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 36.4%