NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU MSM
Points 67.8 70.1
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 39.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 20.9
Points From Free Throws 12.8 9.6
Shooting CCSU MSM
Field Goals Made 24.2 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 59.1
Field Goal % 42.0% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 39.9
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 12.8 9.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 13.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 71.9%
Ball Control CCSU MSM
Rebounds 32.3 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 9.6
Turnovers 10.0 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.8
Steals 8.5 5.9
Fouls 11.2 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU MSM
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 67.4
% of Possessions with CCSU MSM
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 23.6%
Player Fouled 18.5% 15.9%
Turnover 14.2% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 12.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU MSM
Shot Blocked 6.5% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 28.1%