NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE PITT
Points 72.3 71.2
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 36.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 23.7
Points From Free Throws 13.7 11.4
Shooting DUKE PITT
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 59.5
Field Goal % 45.0% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 13.7 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 15.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.0%
Ball Control DUKE PITT
Rebounds 35.0 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 9.5
Turnovers 8.6 7.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 5.7
Steals 4.5 4.8
Fouls 13.9 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Duke

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE PITT
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 68.8
% of Possessions with DUKE PITT
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 30.1%
Player Fouled 19.9% 20.7%
Turnover 12.9% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE PITT
Shot Blocked 9.7% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 26.7%