NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU WAG
Points 65.6 61.0
Total Points   126.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 31.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 20.6
Points From Free Throws 12.1 9.3
Shooting CCSU WAG
Field Goals Made 23.7 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 58.9
Field Goal % 43.6% 38.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.6 38.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 40.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 9.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 13.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 69.5%
Ball Control CCSU WAG
Rebounds 36.7 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.7
Turnovers 8.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.4
Steals 4.4 5.0
Fouls 10.7 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Central Conn

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU WAG
Total Possessions 65.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.7 66.8
% of Possessions with CCSU WAG
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 27.0%
Player Fouled 20.5% 16.3%
Turnover 13.5% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU WAG
Shot Blocked 4.2% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 25.3%