NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU ASU
Points 64.3 71.8
Total Points   136.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 20.3
Points From Free Throws 13.0 12.6
Shooting CCSU ASU
Field Goals Made 22.2 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 58.6
Field Goal % 39.7% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 13.0 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 19.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 65.3%
Ball Control CCSU ASU
Rebounds 35.7 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 8.2
Turnovers 12.1 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.3
Steals 5.5 7.8
Fouls 13.7 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU ASU
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 70.2
% of Possessions with CCSU ASU
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 25.7%
Player Fouled 19.1% 19.2%
Turnover 17.0% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU ASU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 22.6%