NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE UNC
Points 73.7 76.6
Total Points   150.3
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 20.3
Points From Free Throws 13.9 14.8
Shooting DUKE UNC
Field Goals Made 26.1 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 61.3
Field Goal % 43.1% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 41.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 13.9 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 19.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 75.4%
Ball Control DUKE UNC
Rebounds 34.3 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.8
Turnovers 8.3 8.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 5.1
Steals 4.8 4.6
Fouls 15.3 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE UNC
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 72.9
% of Possessions with DUKE UNC
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 23.8%
Player Fouled 20.1% 21.7%
Turnover 11.7% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE UNC
Shot Blocked 8.5% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 29.9%