NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCSU MW
Points 64.0 64.6
Total Points   128.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 30.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.2 22.0
Points From Free Throws 13.4 11.9
Shooting CCSU MW
Field Goals Made 22.7 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 54.4
Field Goal % 42.1% 41.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 13.4 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 15.9
Free Throw % 71.4% 74.8%
Ball Control CCSU MW
Rebounds 37.9 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 6.0
Turnovers 13.5 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.5
Steals 6.9 8.7
Fouls 13.1 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCSU MW
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 63.5
% of Possessions with CCSU MW
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 28.7%
Player Fouled 19.9% 18.9%
Turnover 19.5% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 12.5% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCSU MW
Shot Blocked 6.5% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 30.2% 17.9%