NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DUKE NCST
Points 78.2 73.0
Total Points   151.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 17.9
Points From Free Throws 14.5 13.1
Shooting DUKE NCST
Field Goals Made 27.6 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 59.4
Field Goal % 47.0% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.7 41.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 50.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 14.5 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 17.9
Free Throw % 71.5% 73.3%
Ball Control DUKE NCST
Rebounds 36.4 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 9.0
Turnovers 9.4 8.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.7
Steals 4.7 5.8
Fouls 13.8 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DUKE NCST
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 70.1
% of Possessions with DUKE NCST
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 22.3%
Player Fouled 19.9% 19.9%
Turnover 13.6% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DUKE NCST
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 25.7%