NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTU WKU
Points 69.4 76.6
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 45.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.5 17.1
Points From Free Throws 15.2 13.8
Shooting MTU WKU
Field Goals Made 22.8 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 63.6
Field Goal % 39.6% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 22.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.6 46.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.1 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 15.2 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 19.0
Free Throw % 71.4% 72.7%
Ball Control MTU WKU
Rebounds 36.7 39.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 10.0
Turnovers 13.4 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.5
Steals 4.6 6.4
Fouls 14.5 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTU WKU
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 74.7
% of Possessions with MTU WKU
2 Point Attempt 35.7% 53.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 19.7%
Player Fouled 21.7% 19.3%
Turnover 17.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTU WKU
Shot Blocked 5.7% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 26.6%