NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST USU
Points 68.3 81.7
Total Points   150.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 46.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 16.1
Points From Free Throws 11.3 19.6
Shooting MTST USU
Field Goals Made 24.5 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 53.8
Field Goal % 42.3% 52.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 60.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 16.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 11.3 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.6 27.0
Free Throw % 72.4% 72.5%
Ball Control MTST USU
Rebounds 27.5 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 8.3
Turnovers 11.2 10.2
Blocked Shots 1.5 3.6
Steals 6.4 6.1
Fouls 18.9 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST USU
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 70.6
% of Possessions with MTST USU
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 19.7%
Player Fouled 20.8% 26.1%
Turnover 15.5% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST USU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.6%
Offensive Rebound 16.3% 27.8%