NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring OHIO NCAT
Points 81.3 62.9
Total Points   144.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.3 15.8
Points From Free Throws 13.9 15.1
Shooting OHIO NCAT
Field Goals Made 29.0 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 57.1
Field Goal % 48.0% 37.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 41.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.0 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 13.9 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 21.4
Free Throw % 74.1% 70.8%
Ball Control OHIO NCAT
Rebounds 39.6 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.6
Turnovers 8.2 9.7
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.9
Steals 5.1 4.2
Fouls 14.7 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats OHIO NCAT
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 69.7
% of Possessions with OHIO NCAT
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 22.8%
Player Fouled 19.5% 21.0%
Turnover 11.8% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken OHIO NCAT
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 24.5%