NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST GRC
Points 65.9 78.8
Total Points   144.7
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 17.8
Points From Free Throws 12.6 23.4
Shooting MTST GRC
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 53.0
Field Goal % 40.5% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.7 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 43.3% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 12.6 23.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 30.7
Free Throw % 72.4% 76.0%
Ball Control MTST GRC
Rebounds 28.0 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 11.2
Turnovers 13.1 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.4
Steals 6.3 7.4
Fouls 19.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST GRC
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 72.4
% of Possessions with MTST GRC
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 21.2%
Player Fouled 22.3% 26.9%
Turnover 18.0% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST GRC
Shot Blocked 8.4% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 18.6% 34.4%