NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST BAY
Points 63.5 80.5
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 11.7 22.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 19.9
Shooting TXST BAY
Field Goals Made 23.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 51.9
Field Goal % 42.9% 51.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 59.6%
3 Pointers Made 3.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 12.6 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 13.3 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 27.3
Free Throw % 70.3% 73.1%
Ball Control TXST BAY
Rebounds 27.0 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 19.4 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 10.2
Turnovers 12.1 11.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.4
Steals 6.7 7.0
Fouls 18.4 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST BAY
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 68.8
% of Possessions with TXST BAY
2 Point Attempt 52.5% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 16.0% 24.3%
Player Fouled 21.9% 26.3%
Turnover 17.3% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST BAY
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 34.3%