NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST IDST
Points 72.6 70.0
Total Points   142.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.4 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 15.8
Points From Free Throws 12.3 15.3
Shooting MTST IDST
Field Goals Made 26.5 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 53.9
Field Goal % 50.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 41.8% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 12.3 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 21.9
Free Throw % 72.4% 70.0%
Ball Control MTST IDST
Rebounds 29.3 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 23.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 9.6
Turnovers 11.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.1
Steals 7.0 6.1
Fouls 17.8 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST IDST
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 63.0 67.9
% of Possessions with MTST IDST
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 21.5%
Player Fouled 22.5% 25.9%
Turnover 17.1% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST IDST
Shot Blocked 5.9% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 29.1%