NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MTST COLO
Points 70.1 84.2
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 48.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 17.3
Points From Free Throws 9.9 18.7
Shooting MTST COLO
Field Goals Made 26.0 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 53.5
Field Goal % 44.7% 55.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 24.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.3% 61.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 14.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 40.3%
Free Throws Made 9.9 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 13.7 24.6
Free Throw % 72.4% 76.0%
Ball Control MTST COLO
Rebounds 23.4 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 18.2 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 5.2 8.8
Turnovers 10.5 11.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.1
Steals 7.4 5.8
Fouls 18.2 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MTST COLO
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 68.8
% of Possessions with MTST COLO
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 17.5%
Player Fouled 18.5% 25.3%
Turnover 14.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MTST COLO
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 15.2% 32.6%