NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TXST MSST
Points 62.5 76.1
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 11.6 18.9
Points From Free Throws 13.0 16.0
Shooting TXST MSST
Field Goals Made 22.8 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 53.7
Field Goal % 42.2% 50.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 60.5%
3 Pointers Made 3.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 14.2 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 27.2% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 13.0 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 24.3
Free Throw % 70.3% 65.5%
Ball Control TXST MSST
Rebounds 29.3 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 11.0
Turnovers 13.5 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.5
Steals 6.7 8.6
Fouls 16.8 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TXST MSST
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 69.2
% of Possessions with TXST MSST
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 23.8%
Player Fouled 20.8% 23.9%
Turnover 19.2% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 12.1% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TXST MSST
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 34.7%